Venezuelan presidential election moved forward to 7 October 2012

Venezuela's elections board announced the 2012 presidential vote for October 7, moving the contest up from its traditional December time frame, which some critics say gives President Hugo Chavez an edge by shortening the campaign of potential challengers.
Venezuela's opposition, which some say has a rare chance of unseating Chavez, will hold primary voting to choose a unity candidate for the presidency on February 12, leaving the nominee just under eight months to attempt the daunting task of defeating the weakened but still powerful incumbent.

Miranda state Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski constantly tops polls of likely candidates to face off with Chavez. Other leading hopefuls include former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, Congresswoman Maria Corina Machado and Zulia state Governor Pablo Perez.

Another potentially strong opponent, former Caracas Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, is banned from holding public office because of corruption charges and will find out this week if an international court backs his return to politics. Lopez says the charges are trumped up and politically motivated.

Political analyst and pollster Luis Vicente Leon said building a grass-roots campaign will be important and time consuming for whoever fills the opposition's candidacy. He says that shortening the campaign will favor Chavez, who has access to virtually unlimited broadcast hours and is Venezuela's most recognizable politician.

“The [opposition's] candidate will need face-to-face contact, will need to shake hands and generate popular connections to compete with Chavez,” Leon said.

With Chavez undergoing treatment for cancer, there is some speculation that an earlier date will allow the leader to capture a third six-year term before his condition can possibly worsen, Leon said.

“It can also be attached to the illness of the president,” Leon said. “This is only speculation. We don't know exactly how it could relate to his health, but then again, we don't know much about his health.”

Chavez's approval rating has not significantly changed since he announced he had cancer in June, according to Leon. Chavez, who enjoyed soaring approval ratings at around 70% during his last successful re-election in 2006, still maintains a strong measure of popularity and has hovered around 50% over the last year, but he has lost the aura of invincibility, Leon said.

Chavez, 57, who has been in power since 1999, had a cancerous tumor removed June 20 in Cuba, but has offered few further details on his condition. The former Army officer said Tuesday that he is likely to begin a fourth and final cycle of chemotherapy and will be at full strength when he hits the campaign trail in December. Chavez says he is cancer-free and seeking further treatment as a preventative measure.