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Friday, January 30, 2009

Current Issues On Soviet Russia/Commonwealth News





World Social Forum 2009: a generation’s challenge
Geoffrey Pleyers

The "alter-globalisation" movement gathers in Brazil at a moment of crisis in the system it has long opposed. But its triumph is qualified as it searches for a way to turn global breakdown into political opportunity, says Geoffrey Pleyers.
28 - 01 - 2009



T
hese should be good times for the "alter-globalisation" movement. The unprecedented combination of crises in the global economy, environment, and governance makes its argument for a just and equal world Geoffrey Pleyers is a researcher of the Belgian Foundation for Scientific Research at the University of Louvain (UCL) and a visiting fellow at the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics

An extended version of this text will be published in Mary Kaldor, Helmut Anheier, Marlies Glasius, & Jan Aart Scholte, eds., Global Civil Society Yearbook (Sage, 2009)

The author would like to thank Fiona Holland and David Hayes for their efficient and kind help in editing this text
- "another world" - seem more relevant than ever. Geoffrey Pleyers is a researcher of the Belgian Foundation for Scientific Research at the University of Louvain (UCL) and a visiting fellow at the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics

An extended version of this text will be published in Mary Kaldor, Helmut Anheier, Marlies Glasius, & Jan Aart Scholte, eds., Global Civil Society Yearbook (Sage, 2009)

The author would like to thank Fiona Holland and David Hayes for their efficient and kind help in editing this text

Yet the 100,000 activists expected to assemble at the eighth World Social Forum (WSF) in Belém, Brazil, from 27 January- 1 February 2009 are at a crossroads. The ideas they have been proposing for much of the last decade have in many ways been vindicated by the global financial breakdowns, food riots and elite failures of 2007-09; but even as it celebrates the demise of forces it has unrelentingly challenged the movement itself is divided over its political and organisational direction.

The change within

After its inaugural meeting in January 2001 - a year after the demonstrations in Seattle against the World Trade Organisation (WTO) summit which dynamised the movement - the WSF experienced impressive growth, reflected in increasing participation (from 15,000 to over 170,000 from 2001-05). The forums have become huge meeting-places where people of many nationalities share experiences and discuss local and global issues.

The "alter-globalisation" movement (also called the "anti-corporate-globalisation movement" or the "global social justice movement") has undergone two profound changes since the WSF's last visit to Brazil, in January 2005. That event, in the city of Porto Alegre, remains the most successful forum of all - in terms of the quality and openness of the discussions, and of the size of the event (200,000 people attended the opening demonstration, and 2,500 workshops were run by 5,700 civil-society organisations).

The first great change is in the social geography of the movement, with a notable decline in some of its historical bastions (including most western European countries) but success in important regions such as Africa (where, for example, over sixty national and regional social forums have been organised since 2005) and north America.

The second change is the reorganisation of the movement around new guidelines. The internal quarrels about the forums' objectives and the movement's political orientations are a symptom of this reconfiguration.

The paradox of Geneva

The World Trade Organisation meeting in Geneva on 22-29 July 2008 offered a clear illustration of the current state of the social movement. The purpose of the meeting of thirty delegations from the WTO's most influential member-states was to break the deadlock over the Doha trade-liberalisation process; the failure of negotiations in Seattle (1999), Cancún (2003) and Hong Kong (2005) meant that the credibility of the organisation was at stake.

Europe's "alter-globalisation" organisations had been able to mount large-scale demonstrations at the international summits in Genoa (2001), Gleneagles (2005) and Rostock (2007). Yet despite the importance of the WTO conference - and the fact that it took place in the midst of an evolving global economic crisis - they were unable to mobilise their activists at Geneva.

The evidence of retreat is unmistakable. Major activists' networks - such as the Movimiento de Resistencia Global in Barcelona, the Attac movement and most local social forums - have disappeared or declined; continental forums such as those in Malmö (17-21 September 2008, with 12,000 in attendance) and Guatemala City (7-12 October 2008, with 7,500) attracted far fewer people than previously. Moreover, the movement is much less visible in the mass media than in the 1998-2005 period.

At the same time, the influence of the movement has been felt in other ways. Many of the institutions charged with supervising international trade liberalisation, which encouraged southern countries to adopt neo-liberal policies, now face discredit. Whereas in the 1990s, opening a country to international trade was seen as the only path to greater economic growth, by the late 2000s it had become routine for establishment voices and even state leaders to express support for a new global governance system to contain the destructive tendencies of "casino-", "cowboy-", "hyper-" or "super-" capitalism.

The change of rhetoric reflects a wider ideological shift: the end of three decades marked by the hegemony of neo-liberal ideas. The "alter-globalisation" movement has played an active role in this process, for example by enlarging the space of discussion of trade and economic policies far beyond the realm of international "experts", and by challenging the neo-liberal orthodoxiesof the Washington consensus. Thus even in their relative retreat from the mass mobilisations of the past, the social movements have won a kind of ideological victory.

There is a paradox here: the "alter-globalisation" movement and the organisations and events which compose it seem to have lost much of their capacity at the very time when even prominent policy-makers are coming to believe that the global financial and governance system has in crucial respects failed.

The failure of success

In these circumstances, what is the point of the World Social Forum? It could be argued that it more needed now than ever: that is, to contribute actively to the building of a new and fair global order that can address deep problems of poverty, inequality, food insecurity and ecological crisis. The problem here is that the movement is more united in what it has been against than in what it should now be for. In particular, "alter-globalisation" activists divide into three distinct currents about the way forward.

The local approach

The first current of the alter-globalisation movement) considers that instead of getting involved in a global movement and international forums, the path to social change lies through giving life to horizontal, participatory, convivial and sustainable values in daily practices, personal life and local spaces.

Many urban activists cite the way that, for example, the Zapatistas in Mexico and other Latin American indigenous movements now focus on developing communities' local autonomy via participatory self-government, autonomous education systems and improving the quality of life. They appreciate too the convivial aspect of local initiatives and their promise of small but real alternatives to corporate globalisation and mass consumption.

This approach is exemplified also in initiatives such as the "collective purchase groups" that have multiplied in western Europe and north America. These typically gather small groups of people who buy from local (and often organic) food-producers in the effort to make quality food affordable, create alternatives to the "anonymous supermarket" and promote local social relations. In many Italian social centres, critical-consumption movements have taken the space previously occupied by the alter-globalisation mobilisations. The "convivial de-growth" and "convivial urban" movements belong to a similar, sustainable and environmentally friendly, tendency.

The advocacy approach

The second current of the movement believes that the way forward lies through efficient single-issue networks able to develop coherent arguments in areas such as food sovereignty and developing-world debt; in turn this work can become a route to raising broader questions.

The protection of water-supplies from privatisation, for example, can be used to explore the issues of global public goods, the role of global corporations and "the long-term efficiency of the public sector". After several years of intense exchanges among citizens and experts focusing on the same issue, the quality of arguments has considerably increased to the extent that this form of activity has become the core of the social-forums' dynamic.

There are several examples of the effectiveness of such networks - often without media attention. The European Public Water Network's influence on the city of Paris's decision in November 2008 to restore municipal control over water distribution is just one.

The state approach

The third current of the movement holds that progressive public policies implemented by state leaders and institutions are the key to achieving broad social change.

In the past, "alter-globalisation" activists have struggled to strengthen state agency in social, environmental and economic fields; but now that state intervention has regained legitimacy in the wake of systemic crisis, this more "political" component of the movement believes that the future lies in solidarity with the projects of radical leaders such as Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and Bolivia's Evo Morales.

The national policies of these leaders (social programmes favouring the poor, or taking control of key economic sectors) and their regional alliances and new institutions (the Alternativa Bolivariana por Nuestra América [Alba] coalition, the Banco del Sur) represent a strong pole of attraction for many activists. But if Latin America is the main focus for such identification, similar processes have been at work in western countries too; for example, much of the impetus of the first United States Social Forum in 2007 was redirected towards Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

The shared approach

The participants in the Belém meeting can justly welcome the failure of many aspects of an economic model they long opposed. But as they move beyond critique towards a new role in a transformed global arena, can they find some common ground among these three currents?

An escape from the crises of economy, sustainability and governance is a huge and urgent task that may last a generation. From this perspective, the three trends of the "alter-globalisation" movement could be seen as politically complementary rather than competing strategies. An imaginative understanding of this kind could be the basis of a shared approach that gives the World Social Forum a fresh lease of life.


Nicolai N. Petro, 28 - 01 - 2009
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Against the background of the recent gas dispute, Nicolai Petro suggests that the West recast Ukraine's identity. Rather than a border region, it should be seen as a cultural centre, binding Europe's Eastern and Western halves.

The latest Russo-Ukrainian gas spat may have finally taught the elites in those two countries a vital lesson. Namely, that they stand to gain far more from acting in concert, than either one of them gains from acting against the interest of the other.

The latest statement by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that "Europeans" will not forget how Ukrainian and Russian leaders acted during this crisis, reveals more than just impotence. It serves as a reminder that many Western Europeans are still not ready to accept either Ukraine or Russia as part of Europe. It would be wise for both Russian and Ukrainians not to lose sight of this fact, for it both shapes and constrains the policies of European Union towards them.

At the outset of this latest spat, both Ukrainian and Russia political elites made the mistake of assuming that EU leaders cared about the issues. They therefore put all their efforts into making their case in the media, instead of undertaking direct negotiations. Ukrainian leaders hoped to mobilise western sympathy by portraying their country as a victim of Russian imperialism, while Russian leaders sought to portray the Ukrainians as thieves. Each then tried to involve their Western European partners more directly, urging the European Commission to send monitors to the pumping stations, inviting the parties to a gas summit, and floating schemes by which European intermediaries might step in to guarantee payments in the event of further payment arrears.

In the end, however, all these strategies failed. Belatedly, and with the greatest reluctance, the EU did eventually send a handful of pump station monitors and observers to the gas summit, but mainly to urge the two sides to get serious about direct negotiations. It was only when Russian and Ukrainian leaders finally realised that the EU would not be drawn into their dispute that negotiations resumed, and within hours both sides reached an agreement that established not only the gas price for this year, but a framework covering the next ten years![i]

The details of this agreement are less important than the lessons that both Ukraine and Russia can draw from this experience.

Lessons of the gas dispute

One is that the EU is simply not a viable forum for conflict resolution. It has neither the political will, nor the ability to act, even when its economic interests are directly threatened. It is not a body that leads, it is a body that follows. On purely institutional grounds, therefore, any strategy that expected meaningful pressure to come from Europe was doomed to fail.

Another lesson is that the European Energy Charter Treaty, once touted as the best means of guaranteeing access to gas supplies from Eastern Europe, did not survive its first test. As soon as it became necessary to demand compliance with the treaty's provisions prohibiting the interruption of flows, or the implementation of "specific conciliation procedures," nothing was done, even though Ukraine had both signed and ratified the treaty[ii].

Finally, it is now abundantly clear that the prolonged and systemic crisis of Ukrainian politics-of which this spat is just the latest manifestation-is the direct result of a strategic vision that is profoundly at odds with Ukrainian culture.

Consider the following. Five years after the Orange Revolution of 2004, with its accentuated efforts to marginalise Russian cultural, economic and political influence in Ukraine, over 60% of Ukrainians retain a favourable view of the period of national history tied to the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union[iii]. Three-quarters still regard the Soviet victory in the Second World War as a national holiday, and popular usage of the term "Great Patriotic War," in contrast to the more neutral Second World War, has actually risen[iv].

Nearly 88% of Ukrainians say they have a positive attitude toward Russia, while two-thirds say they would vote against NATO membership, mostly because it threatens Russian security. About as many say they want closer relations with Russia[v]. But perhaps most telling of all is the fact that during almost this entire period by far most popular politician in Ukraine has been . . . Vladimir Putin. His popularity rating among Ukrainians has hovered around 70%, compared to no more than 15% for the most popular Ukrainian politician (Ukrainian president Yushchenko's rating, meanwhile, fell to a new low of 3% in early 2009)[vi]

Clearly the problem is not, as former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has put it, that Ukraine is "a country where nation-building needs a little help."[vii] The problem is that the wrong sort of nation-building is being attempted-the kind that views Ukraine's centuries old religious and cultural affinity with Russia as an obstacle to be overcome. The result has been a smouldering cultural civil war, in which large swathes of the population are engaged in destroying the very edifice that others are seeking to build, thereby condemning to ruin the structure that they both must live in.

But coming, as it does, in the midst of a global economic meltdown, this latest energy spat may just serve to concentrate the minds of both Ukrainian and Russian political elites on the utter futility of the confrontation that has been imposed on them by this model of mis-development. It might even point to the way out.

As long as Russia could afford to provide energy to Ukraine below market prices, Ukrainian politicians could afford to play coy. The end of this era of largesse has forced the latter to call in what favours they could from the West, and so last November, the International Monetary Fund extended Ukraine an emergency loan of USD 16.4 billion. But this pales into insignificance in comparison with the estimated USD 47 billion grant that the Ukrainian budget has had since 2005. This is the result of receiving gas at its border at a steep discount, then nearly doubling the price for its domestic consumers, and finally adding on another $100-150 dollars to the price before shipping it westward. At the end of 2008 the price structure was: an average of $179.5 per thousand cubic metres at the Russian border, $320 for domestic consumers, and $450 dollars for neighbouring Romania.[viii]

Cultural affinity, survival strategy

Small wonder then that, looking first and foremost to their own future, Ukrainian politicians are beginning to see the revival of ties with Russia as an attractive survival strategy. The ten-year gas contract just signed is not, of course, an economic agreement. Who can predict what economic conditions will be so far into the future? Rather, it is a sign that important segments of the Ukrainian political elite that were once betting on Ukraine's rapid integration into the West, are now hedging that bet.

Some will perceive this as a defeat for the West. What they fail to appreciate, however, is that any definition of the West that excludes Russia because of its ostensibly divergent "values," must perforce exclude Ukraine, whose culture and values are inextricably interwoven with those of Russia. One need look no further than the fact that 40% of the parishes of the Russian Orthodox Church are located in Ukraine[ix], and played a key role in the election of the new Patriarch of Moscow.

It would be more sensible for all parties involved to stop fighting this natural affinity, and instead incorporate it into a new and more comprehensive paradigm of European identity. The current Western paradigm, as the late historian Martin Malia has pointed out, excludes Russia by treating it as a subspecies of "Oriental despotism."[x] Given Russia's pre-eminent role in the Orthodox world, this amounts to denying all the primarily Slavic and Orthodox countries of Eastern Europe the ability to participate as equals in the re-definition European identity. Western Europe's alienation from its own Byzantine roots has thus perpetuated Cold War divisions in people's minds, long after they disappeared from the political map.

Two decades ago, former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt foresaw this very danger, and warned of the need to embrace a broader concept of Europe. "We also know," he wrote presciently, "that the historical spiritual reality of Europe does not consist of . . . the [European Economic] Community, but that Byzantium and Novgorod, Krakow and Prague have also contributed to our old common civilisation. And our concept of Europe will one day have to once again encompass the whole intellectual and artistic life of our Eastern European neighbours if we do not wish to become impoverished[xi].

Until the rich heritage of Byzantium truly becomes Europe's common cultural inheritance, proclamations by Russian and Ukrainian leaders of their European bona fides will continue to fall on deaf ears. Working together is the only way they stand a chance of bringing about the fundamental change in Western attitudes that is needed to place the task of European integration on a solid footing.

It would therefore be an unexpected boon for all Europeans if, as a result of this latest crisis, Ukrainian elites finally realised the pivotal contribution they could make to European security by re-casting Ukrainian identity from a border region (Russia's border with Europe; Europe's border with Russia) into a European cultural centre binding its Eastern and Western halves. Doing so would offer Western Europeans a manageable bridge for integrating Orthodoxy into their political and cultural horizons, while at the same time serving as an opening for Russia, which can hardly disavow this part of its heritage, into Europe.

Ukrainian politicians who embrace such a strategy will find a largely untapped domestic constituency eager to support it, as well as allies in Russia and Belarus, two of the country's most important economic trading partners, eager to assist.

This combination might just be enough to allow Ukrainian society to overcome the malaise that has been afflicting it for the past two decades.

>>>>>

Nicolai N. Petro is professor of politics at the University of Rhode Island (USA). He served as the U.S. State Department's special assistant for policy on the Soviet Union under George H.W. Bush. Last November, in Kiev, he took part in a nationally televised discussion of security and development strategies for Ukraine, sponsored by the Ukrainian Forum, an association of Ukrainian civic and political leaders devoted to strengthening civil society as a key resource in state-building.


[i] "Gazovoye soglasheniye Timoshenko-Putina. Polnyi tekst" Ukrainskaya Pravda, January 22, 2009, http://www.pravda.com.ua/ru/news_print/2009/1/22/87168.htm

[ii] The Energy Charter Treaty (in particular, Part II 'Commerce' and Part IV 'Transitional Provisions'), available at: http://www.encharter.org/index.php?id=178.

[iii] "Over 60% Ukrainians Positively View Soviet Period - Survey." Interfax (Jan 10, 2007), cited in Johnson's Russia List 2007-#7. Available online at: (accessed 1/11/2007).

[iv] "Overwhelming Majority Of Ukrainians Regard VE-Day As Great Holiday." ITAR-Tass (May 8, 2007), cited in Johnson's Russia List 2007-#105. Available online at: (accessed 5/10/2007).

[v] "Nearly Half Of Ukrainians Want Country To Follow Own Development Path - Poll." Interfax (May 11, 2007), cited in Johnson's Russia List 2007-#108. Available online at: (accessed 5/13/2007); "Most Ukrainians Positive About Russia, But Russia Has Fewer Ukraine Fans." Interfax (May 12, 2008), cited in Johnson's Russia List 2008-#94. Available online at: (accessed 5/19/2008);"Nearly Two-thirds Of Ukrainians Still Against Accession To NATO,"
Interfax-AVN (Sept 24, 2008); "Most Ukrainians want closer rapprochement with Russia - poll," Interfax (October 27, 2008).

[vi] Svetlana Gamova, "Fraternal Peoples Do Not Want To Be 'Choked With Gas' Nezavisimaya Gazeta,January 21, 2009; "Less than 3% of Ukrainians support Yushchenko - poll," Interfax (January 12, 2009), cited in Johnson's Russia List 2009-#8. Available online at: (accessed 1/25/2009).

[vii] Council on Foreign Relations, Center for Preventive Action Symposium on "Preventive Priorities for a New Era," December 9, 2008, cited in Johnson's Russia List 2008-#226. Available online at: (accessed 1/21/2009).

[viii] "Gazprom's Position on Ukraine Gas Dispute," http://www.gazpromukrainefacts.com/, 26 December 2008. in JRL 2009-#5; Further described by "Gas tycoon sees politics behind Russian-Ukrainian gas row, BBC Monitoring of Ekho Moskvy Radio, January 15, 2009 in JRL 2009-#15.

[ix] "Russian Orthodox Church Has 26,590 Parishes: Patriarch." RIA Novosti (October 3, 2004), cited in Johnson's Russia List 8393. Available online at: (accessed 8/4/2006).

[x] Martin Malia, Under Western Eyes, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 2000, p. 6

[xi] Helmut Schmidt, "Byzantium and the East Is Part of Europe and It Should Be." European Prospect (1979). Available online at: (accessed 2/21/2007


Sniper under Seige


The following letter reached openDemocracy from Tehran, accompanied by this story about the relationship between a sniper and his target. It could have been told yesterday, though it is in fact a flashback to the Iran-Iraq War
28 - 01 - 2009



S
alaam & Greetings to All at Open Democracy

In the past 22 days almost 1300 innocent civilians have died in Gaza. The pain and sadness of these days requires us all to do something. For my part as a writer, I want to share a true story I wrote many years ago.

The story is based on a real experience during another disastrous war; a war, which was supported by the United States of America and its allies, and was forced on both countries, Iraq and Iran. The news from Gaza took my mind back, and I wanted to share this with you, a group of concerned citizens around the world.

Let's hope that we never see such violence again, that somehow we can reach peace for everyone and have a better world for everybody.

Sincerely,
Habib Ahmadzadeh,
Tehran

____________________________________________

Eagle Feather- I see you being dropped off. I stop the movement of my scope and then I center the crosshairs on you...and on you waving the driver goodbye. He drives away...leaving you behind at the place where three roads meet, behind the date grove on the other side of the river. Now you're not certain which road to take! The main road where you'll wait for the next vehicle to come by or... the road that I want you to take? Hurry up and choose. My whole job today depends on your decision. It's not clear from far away, but you put something on your back and move off.

You've chosen and my happiness is boundless. You've eased the burden of waiting for me ...and now you're continuing along the paved road that will end up at your first route. You just continue moving along that line and I'll sit in this lookout, waiting on this side of the river, a wait that should take no more than twenty-five minutes and which will reach its climax in the last seventeen seconds. And, during these twenty-five minutes, at least we can speak frankly to each other, though you will never hear what I have to say, but, perhaps, after those last seventeen seconds are over, all of what I say will reach your ears.

How? I don't know. Whatever the case this is the way we think on this side of the river in this completely surrounded city ...and in any case you are not aware of me sitting here stalking you....and in this dark keep, with the entire plain, date grove, the roads you've crossed on the other side in sight...and especially...I keep every step you take under surveillance, and within my sniper scope lest I forget you.

Yes, I am sitting here stalking you and there's a shell in a mortar, waiting for my order, an order that will be broadcast on invisible waves through the air at the promised time via this radio. Your side's radios may even receive the signal and then the waves will pass by your body and you luckily will be deprived from receiving it and then the radio of our mortar...then the firing...and it will take seventeen seconds for the shell to pierce the air, reach its apex and then like a gull diving for fish, fall on that stretch of road...and then...and then thousands of pieces of shrapnel both large and small will embrace you...but now before you reach that point in the road, which will perhaps be the last place in your life, there are twenty-three minutes left...the highs and lows of the time depends wholly on the speed of your steps,...go slower and you'll add a few seconds to your life...go faster and you'll shorten it by a like amount...and now you are moving. You want me to tell you more precisely how long you have before the shell that awaits you arrives?

I have only to keep you within the crosshairs of my sight and then press the button on my stopwatch...but it's better not to lose time. Perhaps this twenty-second friendship will be come timeless with the shell. Would you like to know what the first question is that I ask after I climb up this tower and have selected a prey like you? It is: Where are you from? Khanaqin, Baghdad, Kirkuk, or Basra?...And, as always, Basra concerns me the most.

Perhaps I should tell you why...and the moment the promised shell hits the ground...What are your parents doing at that moment? Is your mother making bread in one of those mud houses in a village along the Euphrates? Your father...What does your father do for a living? What is he thinking now? Could it possibly cross their minds that I am sitting here waiting to take the life of their child in less than nineteen minutes? And, if there is that odd feeling that exists between a mother and her child, how your mother will curse me at that moment?

But I made my decision ages ago; at the time your forces surrounded this city. Want to know where I'm from? It's not necessary to go very far from here. Maybe only a kilometer in that direction along this very boundary river, several years ago, my birthplace was at the hundred meter point along the river...yes and had I been born just seven hundred meters in the other direction, I now would be one of you, at the height of military prowess with those endless munitions which are more than enough to destroy a city far larger than our small town...and ignoring the screeches and howling of the women and children of the city...and drunk with power...I would be shelling them night and day, but now I'm happy...happy that I was born just seven hundred meters in this direction and that I am fighting for several things.

My mother...Want to know what my mother is doing now? Like always she's reciting the Throne Verse...for me...for my brothers and her brothers and all the people on this side of the river. What about your mother? Is she praying for you also? Whatever she prays or has prayed, in about fifteen minutes more it'll all be for nothing...

And you keep moving...perhaps wanting to reach your front line faster to shell or fire on our city at night again. When you put your finger on the trigger and the stock shakes on your shoulder, do you have a sense of power?...Or does the sound of larger explosions thrill you? Do you dance up and down and clench your fist futilely, when the mortars, shells, and missiles explode on our side ...but when the time comes and I hear that promised detonation, I will not jump for joy...and you are still walking toward the chosen spot...you still have fourteen minutes before I switch on the radio and the sounds form in my larynx and on that side a mortar round comes to greet you.

Can you recall all the shells and mortars you have rained down on our city day and night, annihilating anyone and anything in range of your batteries? Is there any goal in the world more pointless than obliterating a city? Continue on your path. I have only have a daily ration of three shells, and, as on the first day, I have already used up one. Would you like to know how? You've stopped, why? Oh, I see, you've put your pack down. So you're tired! What could be in the pack that has made you so tired? Your clothes? A souvenir maybe, for your foxhole buddies? Maybe some of those homemade cakes your mother makes? You want to know what I would bring if I could leave this besieged city? My souvenir would be some more rounds for the mortars.

You tired? Sit! A few minutes either way will make no difference to me, but continue on your way. I fired my first shell into the middle of this very roadway, and the second one is ready to strike the same spot. You'll be there in a few minutes and you'll see the powder burn from the first shell on the ground, and, like your comrades who were there before, you'll slow your pace...and, stunned, you'll stare at the place where the shell hit, not knowing whether the second shell is coming or not...and this question will always remain for me: After seeing where the first shell landed, why didn't you get scared and start running? You probably thought that the it exploded and that you were so lucky not to have been there when it did...this is what caused you to be so calm but when the second shell comes crashing down...why will you still be sitting?

You want to know more? What will you see if you reach the place where first shell hit and look at it carefully? Yes, that it's one of yours...but make no mistake...it's not part of the spoils we've taken from you. Look at it more carefully! It's one of the dozens of shells that you have brought down on our heads, one of the few duds that lands here every day. They just have to be dug out from the ground, their fuses set on safety and their casings changed for a filed-off fifty-caliber shell...and then...three shells are the daily allowance; three shells that until yesterday were in your hands and today are in ours.

By the way, your national symbol is the eagle! Maybe the same eagle that had thought that all of our cities would be under its wings. On this side of the river we have a tale known to all about an eagle pierced by an arrow...they say that when the eagle looked carefully seeing that its own feather...it said, why shed tears? we are our own undoing?...What are you doing? Those minutes added to your life aren't to your liking? You've put your pack back on and you're moving...yes you'll go down the road and I, like yesterday and all the previous days, will lie in wait for you until you reach the zone of your last seventeen seconds...seventeen seconds to your death...and seventeen seconds till the time when the mortar round reaches its target...so I must recalculate how many steps you have to take during the seventeen seconds...and the radio will have to be switched on seventeen seconds sooner than the shell hits and, seventeen seconds later, a crater will be made where it impact the earth.

My eyes, in addition to the scope, your body, the seventeenth second, the shell burst...and the launching of thousands of pieces of shrapnel all around and into your body...every day or so this scene must be repeated several times until you also on that side of the river are robbed of your security and realize that every time you go on leave your death will come...and this thought is many times more agonizing than being killed at the front itself. The insecurity of the back lines, those tributaries leading to family and normal life, so tied up with a sense of safety...but only a daily rations of three shells will cause that insecurity...and during that entire time you have no choice but to run down this road...3.5 kilometers of road...even when we are not manning our lookouts, you must be anxious...anxious that there is somebody waiting to switch on the radio...yes, with only three shells...and not with those thousands of shells...and we have decided to haul the fear and terror from this side of the river to that...and you're still on the road, looking up at the sky and perhaps enjoying it! What wonderful, brisk weather!

If I were in your shoes the only thing I'd want from God is a breeze so that the shell might be go slightly off course before it hits the road...or that the charge in the mortar round doesn't work and the shell doesn't fire in the chamber. Ten minutes to go before the seventeen-second zone. This is probably what you're thinking: How long will the roads remain insecure? With ten, twenty, forty more people killed, you'll doubt the safety of other roads. Yes, it's a good question, you have every right to ask it, and I have every right not to answer. Today it's your turn to find a strategy. Likewise it could be the turn of one of your comrades, someone just passing a few minutes before you and you would probably inspecting his spattered blood on the ground; but today everything has conspired to make you the subject of the conversation. Want me to answer your question? You have the right to know! In the future if this method doesn't work, I'll find another way. Now everything is in place for the old method. Do you know what that is? Keep walking along the path and just listen. "The Mousetrap" is what we call it. At the same level with the road you are on and the others that go off into the desert behind it is a telephone pole. We just have to bring the first shell down on the telephone wires...and a break in communications...and then the poor lineman who will have to come and reattach the frayed cables...exactly at the point of impact...and here a seventeen second wait won't be necessary...and the second shell...and the interesting thing is that I had never seen this break in the lines myself and only became aware of it from the movements of your linemen.

Taking into account the extra time accrued when you stopped, we have another eight minutes to chat. It's an interesting sort of friendship, don't you think?

Know how many people are sitting around our battery waiting for my radio signal? Five...five artillerymen...Want to know who they are? You have a right to. One of them is Mehdi who lost his father before the war. His mother was laundress at the hospital...until one of those thousands of shells landed on the hospital laundry. Want to know how long it took before those bloody sheets were white again? And then there's Hoseyn who's only thirteen and keeps the artillery clean. He had to bury his sister with his own hands; can you understand how hard that was? Bury bits and pieces of her, that is? Enough or should I say more? Thousands of rounds launched at the city just to kill a handful of non-combatants and all we have is three shells at our disposal and, when today's work is done, all of us without the slightest remorse or pangs of conscience will sit down to lunch and then rest and once again track down some more of your duds so that we can prepare another three shells for the coming days. We, in fact, don't even need the three shells to weaken your resolve. All we have to do every so often is to mount the kind of action we carried out two months ago when we got a battalion of your soldiers to turn on one another. Yes, the same battalion that was sent away from the front lines and was replaced by your battalion. Nobody on your side knew the secret behind those leaflets. The leaflets that angered the leadership of your third army. There shouldn't be any secrets between us during these final minutes. In a few days it will be your battalion's turn. One of those shells that dispense leaflets...leaflets that are simple on the surface, promising amnesty...amnesty with pictures of the Imam...the man that terrifies you...yes, you have rained thousands and thousands of leaflets on our homes in the besieged city...give up...until now none of them has done any good, but our leaflets have alarmed many of you, one little shell at that...and you never caught on to the trick we played on your forces!

You weren't in the old battalion, but your comrades in your present battalion will soon see a shell will open in the sky and pour leaflets down on them...each leaflet containing a picture of Imam Khomeini and the promise of amnesty. When we mount our operations, each leaflet will count as a writ of asylum...and your commander like the commander of the previous battalion will order that the leaflets, especially the writs of asylum, be collected and those in your battalion that don't give up the writs will be reprimanded severely; and that in an army known for its collective punishments. Watch what happens when your battalion commander finds leaflets without amnesty writs! What's he supposed to do? He'll wonder who's picked them up. Maybe a number of soldiers have actually taken them! There'll put more pressure on the battalion to find them...If Baghdad gets word of this...your commander will be under pressure...collective punishment...maybe members of the battalion will start accusing one another to escape the punishment... bad blood and suspicion...and in the end a lack of trust in a battalion some of whose soldiers have hidden the writs of amnesty, even with their pictures of the Imam...and a lack of trust in war means laying awake at night fearing betrayal and expecting something bad to happen.

But do you want to know the truth of the matter? It's likely that nobody on your side picked up one of those amnesty writs, because from the very first we made a number of leaflets without pictures of the Imam and the writs. See how we use our wits and talents in a city under siege? O Mr. Iraqi eagle! How could one of your own feathers be the agent of your death? We never learned to fight anywhere except here during these last few months and if it weren't for the war, we'd be in high school in this very city...and which class would we be in?...Probably math...and here I am calculating the three minutes you have left to live. Now it's time to tell my five comrades down below to get ready. They have to be at the ready with a tight grip on the chord, as the seventeen seconds begin. Well, they're ready...everything's set against you.

Do you know what I always think at such times? That you and those before you and those who come after you are probably Basran. I have a somebody there, or had, I should say, a person that I never saw...my mother's sister...who years ago, long before she died, married a man from there. I always wonder whether you, if you are Basran, know anything about her or her children. They say she had two sons several years older than me. Sometimes at such moments like this I have the feeling that I have those two boys in my sights. Now there are only five steps before you enter the zone. Four steps, three, two, one.

Seventeen seconds.

I've turned the radio on. The chord is being pulled and the machinery of your death has been set in motion. Now a shell that for years remained hidden underground in the form of ore...was extracted, refined and then forged...and then made into a container for shrapnel and steel, brimming with explosive powder...and conveyed by boat over miles of ocean, is on its way to rack up your death; a shell that has been ordered twice to kill: once, when used on our city and twice, when used on you. O Iraqi eagle, here's your feather back!

Sixteen seconds.

From this moment on the shell is making its way through the sky, under no one's control, not even mine. Our friendship didn't last very long. You probably would be in school now...and I, if I could, would take you prisoner to that after the war you could return safely to your family; but now your are on that side of the river and I am on this side.

Fifteen seconds.

You'll have one chance at the thirteenth second when the sound of the shell reaches your ears. If, and only if, you pay attention...and stop for a second and sit...when the shell's course is fixed...maybe you'll survive the explosion...get ready to take that chance.

Fourteen seconds.

If I were in your place and knew what was coming, I'd spend these last moment asking God's forgiveness...for everything and everyone...perhaps God...whatever the case you won't need sermons from me when you're dead.

Thirteen seconds.

The sound of the firing...and you are still determined to follow the same path. The sound of the shell didn't attract attention. What are you thinking about? But there's still a chance...the last chance...maybe a breeze will blow at the last moment, but I pray it doesn't.

Twelve seconds.

As boldly as possible I must admit that after killing you and climbing down from this perch, I will have forgotten the whole thing. By donning that uniform, you have signed a contract to kill and to be killed.

Eleven seconds.

Clear your mind of everything except the wind...and me with my allotment of three shells...and that I have used up one of them...the other is on its way...the third?

Ten seconds.

The seconds remaining in your life have gone from two digits to one. Death is on the way, my friend.

Nine seconds.

The shell is also on its way. You are also on the way and my scope is trained on the spot where the shell will explode. The windfall outcropping whose sole cause is human, on that side of the river.

Eight seconds.

See: there's no breeze to make the shell go off course and the blasting powder in the shell, though it's handmade, has performed perfectly, propelling it from the artillery. Now only a miracle can help you...and, maybe, your mother's prayers.

Seven seconds.

How many days will it take for your family to get word of your death? Two days, five? When it comes, what will your father be doing? For me it wouldn't be more than twenty-four hours. My brother will be the first to know.

Six more seconds.

Time is short. Whenever one of your soldiers comes from that side of the junction in the direction of the riverbank, I say to myself, "Chalk up another enemy for our side."

Five more seconds.

You may be wondering whether I would have called in the strike if you had been my cousin. Yes, I would have and I'd be waiting another four seconds. No in another four seconds you will be at the place where the shell is going to land and four seconds more before your rendezvous with it.

Four more seconds.

See the waterway for the last time? We call it the Arvand River and you the Shatt al-Arab. In any case it won't make the slightest difference to you. Whatever happens the fresh water of the river will spill into the sea, becoming salty; as in the past, the present, and in the future. See how foolish it was to start killing the people of our city, in the hope of trapping a river that has never been captive to the man-made?

Two more seconds.

Again, you hear nothing I say; you just keep walking to the place where the shell will explode at the same pace. In one second you'll hear the explosion, but you'll only have part of a second to hit the dirt. So get ready and use the last chance to save your life.

One second.

Our friendship is in its last second. What are you thinking about during the last moment of your life? Your intended, who waited until the last second to say farewell? Your mother? The cold weather? There's nothing else to do! My eyes are fixed on the point of impact and you are caught in my crosshairs and, in this half second, the sound of the shell...and...it's all over. The blast happened exactly where it was supposed to, covering the place in a cloud of smoke and dust that made you disappear. I sit waiting for it to settle. What happens next means nothing to me, but for you, if you're wounded...it is vital...every second you'll bleed more than before...and I know exactly what you are thinking about during this time...about your friends helping you...but if it's all over and your soul has taken flight...now your friends have a dilemma...should they rush to help you? I also have a friend who could come to your aid...don't get me wrong...not to save you...I've let you in on our whole strategy...the third shell is already in the tube so that your friends will suffer the same fate as you.

The smoke has cleared and you're lying on the ground not moving. Your friends are observing from far away. You'll be the bait for the next hook and I'll remain here waiting for your friends so I'll use the third and last eagle feather...

And again another second.

Our friendship is in its last second. What are you thinking about during the last moment of your life? Can you imagine how much the firing of one shell, only one shell, has caused me to think? Where do you come from? I wonder. Who's thinking of you? And this is what I do every day, for every one of you who goes down this road. Do you, before firing all those shells at us, give my mother the slightest thought? So why is launching these three shells so painful for you? Three shells with so much thought versus thousands of shells without any thought, if those thousands of thoughtless shells had not been fired, then these thoughtful shells would never be launched. My eyes are fixed on the point of impact and you are caught in my sights and this half-second...what happened? Why are you lying on the ground? What are you looking at? At a dud? So the shell was a dud again! So now I'll give you five seconds to get up and run away; if not, I'll switch on the radio so and tell them to send the third your way.

I start my stopwatch...one, two, three, four...run faster! You put my mind at ease! Don't get me wrong: I've haven't said this so you'd get away ahead of time. My third shell needs to fly seventeen seconds, and, if you were late to escape, it's possible that there'll be no one where the shell hits...now, perspiring, you'll join your friends...without your back pack which you left in that appointed place...and now you've seen death with your own eyes...will your finger squeeze the trigger of your gun again tonight? Will you give the mothers on this side of the river a thought? Absolutely...so you've got my message loud and clear. With death or fear, it doesn't matter which, you'll transmit you fear to your comrades...like the leaflet-scattering shell that will explode over your heads in a few days...and maybe you are one of those who out of fear kept one of those writs of amnesty. Whatever the case I'll be waiting for you, until at the crossroads...someone else is dropped off...perhaps in a couple of days...and again you my friend....

From Tales of the Iran-Iraq War, translated from the Persian by Paul Sprachman

(Source:Open Democracy)

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Current Topics On:Russa, US and Velezuela










Murder, Moscow-style
21 - 01 - 2009

The killers have no fear because they know they will not be punished. But neither are their victims  afraid, because when you defend others you cease to fear.
On 19 January in the centre of Moscow Anastasia Baburova, a journalist with Novaya gazeta, and the lawyer Stanislav Markelov were shot dead. The killer stood behind them and aimed at the back of the head. He had no reason to fear. Not one such public political assassination has yet led to a trial or conviction.
Stanislav Markelov was an exceptional lawyer.
He took on hopeless and dangerous cases. A Moscow attorney, he was constantly in Chechnya, representing the interests of the victims of extra-judicial punishment and torture. He also dealt with cases elsewhere of those who had been attacked by Russia's fascist groups.
Stanislav defended those who were killed or humiliated by the State. He was a friend to our newspaper and its legal advisor. He was responsible for the civil cases of Anna Politkovskaya, defending those she wrote about. He represented our journalists in court. Stanislav was attorney for the family of Igor Domnikov, an editor with Novaya gazeta who was murdered in 2000, and tried to force the authorities to open criminal proceedings against those who were behind that killing and who remain, to this day, at liberty.
Anastasia Baburova only joined Novaya gazeta in October 2008.
She very much wanted to work for the newspaper and decided to investigate crimes committed by Russia's Nazi groups. She had very little time to do her job.
In essence, Stanislav and Anastasia were simply decent people who could not tolerate what the majority in our country has accepted. That was enough for the lords and masters of Russia to issue their verdict, for those who are allowed to kill in our country.
These were the latest killings of those who did not fit within the present system. A 34-year-old lawyer who defended Chechens against Russia's military, and defended Russia's soldiers from their corrupt commanders. He spoke out against the neo-Nazis who are supported by the regime and defended Russia's anti-fascists whom the regime sends to prison. Markelov defended journalists and rights activists and was himself a defender of human rights. As a consequence in the elite milieu of the capital's attorneys he was regarded as an outsider.
25-year-old Nastya Baburova was also a romantic rebel, an anarchist who took part in the anti-fascist movement and the Dissenters' marches.
It was no accident that she found herself in such company: she quite consciously chose that path in life. In the eyes of the regime and ordinary people, who only want to keep out of trouble and quietly survive the present regime, Nastya's choice also made her an outsider. Therefore few people in our country could die as she did, struggling to apprehend the assassin. In the office in front of which Stas and Nastya were shot people heard gunfire and even understood immediately what had happened. They were afraid to go out, however, or even to glance through the window.
The motive behind Markelov's murder could be found in almost any of his cases. These include that of Budanov. Stanislav Markelov was demanding that new charges be brought against ex-colonel Budanov, just released on parole, for the rape of Elza Kungayeva. The chances of success were quite high since the details of the rape that preceded her 2000 murder by Budanov are recorded in the case materials.
It could well be that the former superiors and accomplices of "Cadet", the policeman Lapin from the remote Khanti-Mansiysk region, were behind Monday's killing. Lapin was eventually sentenced to 11 years imprisonment for the abduction, torture and murder of a Chechen lad Zelimkhan Murdalov. (Stanislav Markelov represented his parents in court.) Lapin's superiors also took part in such abductions and torture sessions. Warrants were issued for their arrest several years ago but, supposedly, no one knows where they are.
The order to kill the lawyer could have come from Chechnya. Markelov with provocative bravery took on cases concerning the secret prisons built in the Kadyrov family's native village of Tsentoria, where Chechens are tortured and killed.
After the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, with whom Stanislav Markelov was closely linked through North Caucasian affairs, we realised that more of our people ─ the newspaper's journalists, lawyers and rights activists ─ could be next. After Anna was killed many people waited for the regime to speak clearly and take decisive action. What we actually heard would have better not been said. On Monday the list of our losses was continued by Markelov and Baburova. It's no surprise. We are not the only ones to pick up the message being sent out by the regime: all the country's fascist trash also understand it very clearly.
It was not by chance that Stanislav and Nastya had been friends for many years (she was only 25!) They were people who had an absolutely clear understanding of good and evil. Such abstractions acquire meaning when people act.
The killers have no fear because they know they will not be punished. But neither are their victims afraid, because when you defend others you cease to fear. Those today who are fearful are the people who keep out of trouble, trying to survive these bad times, when the bad times (for some reason) never seem to end.

(Source:Open Democracy)



************************************************************************************************************


Barack Obama: hope, fear... advice
openDemocracy
A new, young, African-American president opens a fresh political era in the United States and the world. openDemocracy authors offer their thoughts on the prospects.

19 - 01 - 2009


We asked some of our authors around the world to respond to the following:
"About the Barack Obama administration, please tell us:
1 one thing you hope for
2 one thing you fear
3 one piece of advice you would give"

Paul Rogers Conor Gearty Antara Dev Sen

Ehsan Masood Mariano Aguirre Ivan Briscoe
Paul Gilroy Peter Kimani Dejan Djokic
Emily Lau Andrew Stroehlein Michele Wucker
John Hulsman Patrice de Bee Ramin Jahanbegloo
Onyekachi Wambu
Tanya Lokshina Camille Toulmin
Volker Perthes Steven Lukes James Crabtree
Mustafa Akyol Susan George Todd Gitlin
Jim Gabour Arthur Ituassu Sergio Aguayo
Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao Noriko Hama Carne Ross
Ann Pettifor Michael Edwards Bissane El-Cheikh
 

Paul Rogers, professor, Bradford University
1 That the Barack Obama administration takes immediate and sustained action on climate change
2 That it is unable to break free of past policy on Israel and Afghanistan
3 Play it long, but don't forget you have a much more substantial honeymoon period than is usual - use it.
Ehsan Masood, journalist with Nature, London
1 Visionary leadership, and some fresh thinking - ok, so that's two things
2 A younger man full of idealism, overwhelmed by voices of caution and the scourge of special interests
3 Remember that what is good for the planet as a whole is also good for America.
Paul Gilroy, professor, LSE
1 That Obama will tell the Israeli government to release Marwan Barghouti
2 That the Israeli government will not listen
3 Read up on the history of the British empire's overthrow and collapse so that he can understand why releasing Barghouti might be helpful.
Emily Lau, Hong Kong legislator
1 That President Obama can bring peace to the middle east and the rest of the troubled world by healing the wounds caused by misguided policies. That his administration can introduce policies which will seek to eradicate the deep-seated hatred which has built up over the years, hatred which makes people willing to sacrifice their lives in order to get even. I hope the president can show a more humane and humanitarian face of America, win more friends and make fewer enemies
2 That some people in the United States may not like the new president and do nasty things to him
3. Lead the American people towards adopting a new lifestyle that is more frugal and less wasteful. It is time for Americans to learn the meaning of sustainable development, to stop exploiting limited resources, to remember that tens of millions of people live in abject poverty - and be thankful for what they have got.
John Hulsman, scholar-in-residence, German Council on Foreign Relations
1 Barack Obama's seeming genius in using symbolism suggests that he comprehends his (and his compatriots') place in the overall story of the American experience. Through his using the Lincoln bible for the inauguration, to tracing the great emancipator's steps on his rail journey to Washington, to his trip to Philadelphia to pay his respects to John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, and Thomas Jefferson, Obama truly seems to know and feel that we Americans are part of this larger, more glorious narrative, and that we must try (and surely we will fall short) to live up to it. This is precisely what President Bush had no feel for, making his descent into constitutional shredding far easier. If one doesn't value America's great example, why should it matter? Obama seems to truly value the American past as a guide for America's future; that is what I hope for
2 Democrats in the United States, and the left in general, are wonderful at grasping the many facets of problems. They have proven less able to separate those policy goals that are essential to grapple with and solve from those that it would merely be nice to deal with; by being fixated on the complexity of things, the left tends to lack judgment about their relative importance. The results are policy laundry-lists that take the place of making genuine choices. Amid the multiple crises confronting the United States, I fear for Obama that his immediate advisors may revert to this dangerous habit
3 Instead of a laundry-list that squanders both your great promise and your current popularity, focus on a very few things. The first (and second, and third) should be the economic crisis - this is why you were elected, and the best immediate way you can help the country and the world. However, you also have a chance to set the parameters for a new era; the time you live in may not be of your choosing, but how it evolves can, to some extent, be determined by your administration. Whatever the foreign- policy issue, whatever the immediate, keep this larger strategic point in mind: you will be the first president to lead America in this new age of multipolarity. Enticing the rising powers to be part of the new order, making them status-quo powers defending efforts at global governance - and not revolutionary powers out to destroy it - is the task history has set you. This broader imperative should always guide you, as you make your way through the day-to-day crises you will have to confront.
Onyekachi Wambu, African Foundation for Development
1 At last, a formal apology for slavery and dispossession of the native Americans - the two original sins of the republic
2 Business as usual
3 Trust your instincts. People like you and believe in your appeal for change. They are also patient - but you should begin to define this change more clearly and deliver on it.
Volker Perthes, director, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
1 That the United States actively and consistently engages in conflict-resolution, starting in the middle east. This would be the real practical translation of Joseph Nye's concept of "smart power", which the new secretary of state has already introduced to the official lexicon of American foreign policy during her testimony in the Senate hearing. If America were to engage in seeking a fair solution for the conflicts between Israel and its neighbours that basically accepts the legitimate interests of all regional parties, this would restore US credibility in the wider Muslim and much of the rest of the world, and make it much more difficult for the ideologues of jihadism to gain support and adherents in the region. Perhaps even more important, such an engagement may offer the last hope to actually implement a two-state solution that would allow Israel and Palestine to live peacefully with - or at least alongside - one another. The blueprints for a peaceful settlement are all there. It needs international - i.e., American-led - even-handedness and firmness to translate them into reality
2 That a Barack Obama administration could be distracted from pursuing its foreign-policy agenda through a combination of factors that already are known and present. Among them are a deepening economic crisis that may spur protectionist tendencies; special domestic interest-groups that would try to subvert a more inclusive and fair US policy in the middle east; and short-sited actions by other international players (Russia, Iran, North Korea or certain non-state actors) that would try to test the strength of the new administration at an early stage, either to embarrass the new administration or to prove to their own and other societies that the US is still the enemy.
3 In order both to achieve the goals set out under the "hope" category and to avoid the risks under the "fear" one, the main advice is from the beginning to seek solutions and pursue global policies in the most inclusive way. That means getting the emerging powers (China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and - prospectively - even Iran) to address issues of real globality (i.e. issues that do not just affect the entire world but that also cannot be solved without global cooperation) and to rebuild the structures of global governance. Everyone knows that the present composition of global-governance institutions and clubs (the United Nations Security Council, the G8, IMF, World Bank and others) no longer reflects the distribution of real (both hard and soft) power in the world; nor do these institutions and clubs invite those who have gained in the relative power-shifts to take real responsibility.
Mustafa Akyol, journalist, Turkey
1 That President Obama can pave the way for peace in the middle east. It will be a very tough road, especially after Israel's brutal onslaught in Gaza which killed hundreds of children and carved hatred into millions of hearts. To achieve peace, he will need both to find a way - directly or indirectly - to talk to Hamas and convince of the need for a two-state solution; and to impose some sanity and restraint on Israel, whose brutality is seen as "state terrorism" by millions of Muslims in the region.
2 That he will be tamed and co-opted by the Washington establishment. That . "experts" will convince him that "this is the way we do things here, sir." That he will be forced to retreat from some of the revolutionary and much-needed steps he promised or hinted he would take, such as talking to Iran, the Taliban and Hamas. And that, as a result, the world will start to see him only as a lighter version of the George W Bush administration - a new Bush with a smiling face.
3 Mr President, please, please, do not give up your promise for change. You have vowed to follow a policy based on pragmatism, not ideology. Be very much aware that some people will sell their ideology to you in the cloak of pragmatism. Do not forget the suggestions and sentiments of the good people who supported you in your earliest days. Moreover, I know you are a modest and humble man, but let me still remind you of a piece of advice which every Ottoman sultan was publicly given during his inauguration ceremony: "Don't be arrogant, my sultan, God is greater than you."
Jim Gabour, writer, New Orleans
1 I can only hope for intelligence. Plain, down-to-earth intelligence. And not the waterboarding / spy-satellite sort, but rather an ongoing ability to think through ideas and then speak words that are attached to reality and signify deeper understanding. Subject-verb-object is an overt sign, something missing the last eight years, that we are being led by significant thought rather than rampant cowboy hormones
2 I fear the inevitable corruption of a Pure Concept. I can only worship at the altar of what has been accomplished. But I fear what I have seen all too many times: the reality of making things work always sullies that gleaming ideal. It is necessary. It is inevitable. But, while dealing with it, I can only wish it would not happen
3 Truth is not a variable concept. It is a hard-edged, scarred and pitted, bitterly rusty blade that slices in one direction only. Accept that, and live with it.
Roger Scruton, research professor, Institute for the Psychological Sciences
1 That this presidency will lay to rest the myth of America as a "divided" society, in the grip of "white racism"
2 That the great increase in presidential power that could result from the society-wide belief that presidents can change things in fundamental ways
3 Futile as the advice may be - don't go the way of Roosevelt and the New Deal; don't bail out failing financial institutions; don't subsidise failing industries.
Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, director, Center for Asia-Pacific Area Studies, Taiwan
1 That President Obama can arrange his policy priorities so that he can act both as the national leader of the United States and a global leader. In domestic terms, that he can stabilise the American economy and reform its problematic financial order, so that the US's economic crisis will be addressed and a world recession averted
2 That President Obama may be too ambitious in attempting to deal with too many demands from all fronts - liberal and conservative, domestic and international; and thus ends up in a situation of too many words of promise and too few actually achievements. In specific terms, that he might be too compromising in dealing with authoritarian regimes in order to remedy the US's past unilateral diplomacy - and that as a result, democracy as a universal value could be sacrificed
3 Uphold and advocate freedom, human rights, justice, and democracy for the global community. One way to do so is for him to formulate a workable, consistent and sensible "democracy-promotion action-plan" in which the US would firmly and consistently support, protect and strengthen all new democracies in the world.
Ann Pettifor, Advocacy International
1 That the United States rejoins the community of nations as a respected peer; no longer acts as a militaristic and intolerant empire; and helps bring peace and stability to the middle east, and justice to the Palestinian people
2 That powerful commercial forces will prevent his administration from providing the American people with a free and universal healthcare system
3 Break with the economics profession's orthodoxies; wipe the slate clean, and then implement Keynesian monetary policies to help the US create debt-free money, or low-interest credit for investment in a localised steady-state economy based on clean technology and millions of green-collar jobs.
Conor Gearty, professor, LSE
1 That the United States returns to the community of states that share the values of democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law - not as camouflages for selfish state action but rather as part of a genuine commitment to civilised cooperation
2 That President Obama will not dare to be different, will not seize the moment - and instead retreats into a bland centrism, thus failing to serve the interests of the American people and the people of the world
3 Use the monstrosity of Israel's Gaza war to challenge the Israeli government. For President Obama to say nothing about Gaza will be to give the Israelis a blank cheque - and Obama's cosmopolitanism will lie in shreds. If he is unable to confront Israel directly, a serious commitment by Obama to international law and the United Nations will transform the US's relationship with Israel in the medium-to-long term - for Israel needs to reject international law and the UN in order to act as it currently does.
Mariano Aguirre, director, Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre
1 See 2
2 See 3
3 Pay attention to the poorest of the world. In 2009, the United States's real global role will be acknowledged for the first time. George W Bush's government was a desperate coercive attempt to limit social change and freedoms in the US itself while seeking to torpedo the multilateral system. It was leadership through force. Barack Obama, despite his rhetoric of positive leadership after the disastrous Bush era, is aware of the limitations of a country in such deep crisis and even long-term decline that it can no longer be regarded as the sole global superpower.
China, the European Union, India, Brazil and Russia are already regional powers and some of them are becoming global in scope. Washington, its military might notwithstanding, will find that without close cooperation with others it is increasingly difficult to tackle situations such as insurgency in Afghanistan, violent crisis in Pakistan, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict - or international-trade disputes.
President Obama should pay attention to the different forms of violence directly related to poverty and inequality, and to the lack of state institutions. Climate change reduces natural resources needed for survival and intensifies competition. High food prices will create more poverty, and the financial crisis will increase inequality. The interplay of all these factor portends more social and armed conflict.
Barack Obama's administration should remember that greater poverty and inequality - even out of the rich world's sight - is a global problem for everyone. The need for solutions to are urgent. These should start by bringing new and old actors in the multipolar world together to draw up a common plan to protect the poorest against the impact of the crisis, and reformulate the dominant - and failing - models of growth and trade.
(Translated from Spanish by Fionnuala Ni Eigeartaigh)
Peter Kimani, journalist, Kenya
1 There are many in our midst who think that Barack Obama invented the word "hope". And perhaps he did - by demonstrating to millions of Americans that they could dream again - and that everything is possible.
Still, hope is a big word for the millions who have lost, or are about to lose their jobs, and have vested their hopes in him to secure their futures.
Some cynics say the only reason Obama was overwhelmingly elected by whites was to bequeath him the shell that's the American economy.
But that's to miss the point. For him to have won the nomination of a Democratic Party that once supported slavery, and then the endorsement of the whole nation, is a powerful testament to the nation's political evolution.
It is also in its way a tribute to globalisation - and an experiment that should be tried elsewhere, in Europe.
I hope too that Obama's governance will sustain international interest in Kenya, and help bring to book those responsible for organising and funding the mayhem in December 2007, in which 1,300 people were killed.
2 Barack Obama has raised people's expectations to the stratosphere, but has to come down to earth and offer realistic solutions to his country's many challenges
He has also promised to rout out the old Washington ways and set in place more pragmatic, people-sensitive structures to uplift the poor by making the rich pay a little more for their comforts.
But Obama has made a few faltering steps by returning to power several old Washington hands, who might tie his own if not arm-twist him to abandon his reformist agenda.
I fear Obama will soon realise the limitations of his power by reconciling the America that he hopes to create, and the one that has been running since 1776.
Overall, I fear Obama's or Americans' reality-check, when it finally dawns, will break their hearts - even if he doesn't break his promise.
3 That Obama strives to be true to yourself. In election campaigns, politicians say what the electorate want to hear. But in running the affairs of the state, a leader has to be fair to all citizen, especially those that did not vote for him as they're likely to be more critical.
The clearest advice is to avoid senseless wars. Obama also has to be more decisive than his predecessors on Palestine, and recognise that its unresolved crisis has offered militants a useful reference-point to justify their carnage on hapless citizens of the world, wherever they are to be found.
Andrew Stroehlein, International Crisis Group
1 That Barack Obama signs up the United States to the International Criminal Court. It would be one of the best ways to signal a clean break
2 That the US fails to act in the event of renewed mass ethnic or sectarian cleansing in Iraq - as both Obama and Hillary Clinton's deeply worrying comments during the campaign suggested might happen. The idea that American forces would stay on base and/or continue their withdrawal in such circumstances would be a horrific abdication of responsibility
3 Don't wait seven years to start working all-out on a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine. A split Palestine, an Israeli election and the fresh wounds of the Gaza conflict make it seem like the worst possible time to push a peace process. But it's never an ideal time - and the longer the delay, the harder it becomes.
Patrice de Beer, journalist, France
1 That Barack Obama proves able to sustain the very hope he aroused in the United States and in the world - because hope itself (as he seems to understand) can make marvels, win support for controversial measures, and become a driving force for change
2. That this very hope will be exceeded by the expectation he has aroused, including in Europe - for America's interests will remain paramount
3 Remain your own man, follow your own path, stay committed to your goals - even as you (as you must) listen to others and remain open to ideas, including the bold or unconventional. Don't be diverted by day-to-day politics, opinion-polls, electioneering. Never forget, after all, that FD Roosevelt was re-elected in 1936 more because he kept to his strategy despite its slow impact than because he sought public favour.
Tanya Lokshina, Russia researcher, Human Rights Watch
1. That the Barack Obama administration improves the United States's human-rights record, thus enabling the country to regain leverage in international affairs
2. That the the strains in the US-Russia relationship will continue, making it more difficult to constructively raise human rights at a bilateral level
3. Develop with the European Union a common approach on human rights in Russia - and ensure that it is a robust approach.
Steven Lukes, professor, New York University
1. The current financial crisis and economic recession and forthcoming depression are just the latest manifestations of Barack Obama's luck, for they afford him, at least initially, extraordinary latitude to pursue a transformative political agenda. Part of that agenda is already declared to be green and part is egalitarian, notably with respect to healthcare and educational provision. My hope is that he will push further in a social-democratic direction (to which the United States has hitherto been so inhospitable), extending public provision of public goods and changing the American meaning of "welfare" from negative to positive
2. On the campaign trail, Obama became ever more committed to sending large numbers of troops into Afghanistan. The question is whether this was shrewd campaign rhetoric or a sincere declaration of future strategy. My biggest fear is that it might be the latter. This bodes major disaster, in the light of all we know about Afghan politics and the history of interventions in that country. What I fear is that Obama and his secretary of state may see Afghanistan as the next arena within which to continue pursuing the war against terror
3. My advice - unnecessary, it seems - is not to ignore but to discount the political advice of intellectuals, certainly to treat their political judgments with appropriate scepticism. He shows every sign of taking advice from many quarters, including community organisers, and indeed encouraging conflicting viewpoints, while taking expert advice (e.g. on climate change and on scientific questions), on the basis of data and professional competence. My advice is: encourage intellectuals in their various pursuits but treat their political opinions as having no special weight.
Tarek Osman, writer, Egypt
1 That in an era of great changes and pressures in the world, Barack Obama will have the right combination of good judgment and steadfastness to steer a course for the United States that is energetic and ambitious but not aggressive or antagonistic
2 That despite his calm demeanour, wise performance, and conspicuous intelligence, Obama could yield to the increasingly apparent "wounded lion" impulse in US politics
3 Be yourself. Remember that the millions of Americans who voted for you, and the hundreds of millions all over the world who cheer your arrival in the White House, look to you with admiration and high expectations - not to the machinations of Washington.
Susan George, writer, France
1 For us all, an end to military adventurism; for Americans, to join the civilised world by ensuring universal healthcare
2 Larry Summers and all his works; in general the Clinton retreads in positions of influence
3 Put all your chips on massive conversion to an ecological economy: quality jobs and infrastructure will be the by-products.
Arthur Ituassu, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro
1 Barack Obama's arrival in the White House reflects the exhaustion and failure of a long conservative-nationalist current in the United States, and the emergence of a potential political realignment which could shape a new, liberal political framework of national and international harmony. I hope for the success of this project
2 The project's failure could create great dangers, such as a vacuum of power and ideas in the United States that could be filled by extremism and violence. In that event, the scenario might resemble Paul Kennedy's vision of a great power struggling hard against its own decline. The US is a political machine of ideas; without them the country perishes
3 The project I have outlined will require strong doses of political creativity and open-mindedness. History offers only some hints here: the unprecedented challenges that lie ahead make necessary - most of all, it might be said - a new political language. In the face of international terrorism, globalisation, disease, inequality, environmental problems and economic crisis - how can politics be an instrument for a political community to live in peace, freedom, and solidarity?
Noriko Hama, Doshisha Business School, Japan
1 That with the coming of Barack Obama, America will finally enter the 21st century and begin to realise that - despite what Thomas Friedman says - the world is in fact round. There are actually people living out there beyond America's immediate horizons
2 That the coming of Obama makes America regain confidence in the wrong way. People suffering from self-disillusionment can be quite perceptive
3 That Obama remains true to his acceptance-speech declaration that he would be "always honest with you". Honesty is always the best policy.
Michael Edwards, Demos, New York

1 Clean, open, positive and powerful government in the public interest
2 Too much calculation of the potential damage that might be done to cross-party cooperation by strong action on key but contested issues like Israel-Palestine, gay rights and corporate regulation
3 Remember the real meaning of Martin Luther King's "beloved community" - the complete transformation of society and its structures - not the anaemic version of "more volunteering and community service".
Antara Dev Sen, The Little Magazine, Delhi
1 That ethics would play as great a role as self-interest in Barack Obama's foreign policy, and that he would focus on ushering in peace in the middle east and south Asia
2 That in troubled south Asia he would make matters worse for India by trying to "solve" the Kashmir problem while indulging Pakistan to wean it away from the partnership of terror it has with Afghanistan
3 For global security the United States would need to address deeper issues than just the frontline of terror in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A real - even if gradual - change in foreign policy is necessary. Also, do recognise that "solving" the Kashmir dispute will not end Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. It would be great to see from the Yes We Can Man a genuine, principled attempt to normalise relations with Iran, be constructively even-handed in the middle east and help make Pakistan and Afghanistan accountable, responsible democracies.
Ivan Briscoe, Fundacion para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Dialogo Exterior, Madrid
1 That a full and free public-health system is created that will include all 50 million uninsured Americans, and illegal immigrants too. Treating all citizens as equal bearers of the right to exist is a more potent and deeper reform to foreign policy than any shuffle in the state department
2 That a Blackberry-crazed president, in the middle of an unceasing flow of business-closures and bank-collapses, with 100,000 troops camped around the Khyber pass and a Mexican narco strike-force in charge of Arizona, decides that it is time to keep everyone happy by printing lots of dollars
3 Every shift in paradigm (from the war on terror, "read my lips" tax policy, the war on drugs, or carefree support for Israel), before it is greeted as inevitable, will be treated as despicable. In short: the best speech to a lobby banquet is the one followed by a long silence.
Dejan Djokic, Goldsmiths College, London
1 That, following years of disastrous attempts to dominate the world, the US under President Obama does not head towards a "splendid isolation"
2 That it does. But, in today's world of climate change, credit-crunch, the middle-east conflict, the gas crisis, and political tensions throughout the world - I fear more than one thing
3 Throw away your Democratic predecessor's reading-list on the Balkans (and your immediate predecessor's, presuming he had one). I'd be happy to supply a new one!
Michele Wucker, World Policy Institute
1 That President Obama will usher in a new era of United States leadership that recognises and empowers other nations as stakeholders in the common pursuit of solutions to shared global challenges
2 That high expectations will overwhelm the need for patience, persistence and forbearance
3 Keep long-term goals in sight, while finding approaches to immediate and urgent problems that can strengthen the likelihood of successful global collaboration being able to surmount future challenges in our interdependent world.
Ramin Jahanbegloo, University of Toronto
1 Perhaps never in the past thirty years have the hopes of so many people for positive change in international relations rested on one administration or even one person as they do on Barack Obama. My hopes are for a kind of political leadership that would overcome intolerances, prejudices and inequalities around the world, and help all nations to struggle and to preserve ideals of democracy and peace. The results will include peace in the middle east; the effective closedown of the Guantánamo detention facility; an overall economic recovery; and a new image of America in the world
2 That the huge expectations invested in Obama by African-Americans and many marginalised members of American society, who see him as a new Martin Luther King Jr, will lead to bitter disappointment. But my greatest fear is that he might lack that historical feel which world leadership, to be persuasive and bring non-violent reforms, absolutely requires
3 If the Obama administration wants to address concretely the problems of the middle east, it has no other choice but to engage adequately and non-violently in a constructive dialogue with Iran, Syria and the Palestinians; remove troops from Iraq and Afghanistan; and try to overcome the real obstacles in the path toward peace, stability and prosperity in the region. Thus if I were an advisor to President Obama, I would suggest to him to be and to act as a man of dialogue with an open mind and a spirit of tolerance.
Camilla Toulmin, International Institute for Environment & Development
1 See 2
2 See 3
3 Be clear. Please use your powerful skills to communicate ideas, values, and beliefs to help people understand that we can change ourselves and the world.
Be bold. Deeds speak louder than words. Europe's current leaders are strong on declamatory power but weak on action. But they'll follow a strong lead from you - so show them what can be done.
Be a listener. Most of all to James Hansen, the Nasa scientist and climate expert who understands that climate change is the big one. An agreement on an ambitious, robust and fair global deal in 2009 has to be the top priority. This is not just an "environmental" priority - it is vital to our very survival. We must have a sustainable, healthy ecosystem if we are to support the banks and businesses that help produce our daily bread. There is no bailout for the planet!
James Crabtree, Prospect
1  That his eight years in office are competent, sometimes inspiring, uncorrupted, and brave; that in this case, all political careers don't end in failure
2 The arc of most progressive leaders is a lesson in how quickly these moments of hope can be lost. To expect Barack Obama to continue the pattern is simply reasonable - either because he himself fails, or because he is torn down. The number-one job of the political right now is to make Obama a "normal" politician - in the pit, as grubby as the rest. They will surely succeed, though what is key is the extent to which Obama can in the process preserve what is original about him
3 Get some rest.
Todd Gitlin, Columbia University
1 That there is tough-minded intervention in the middle east, heading toward a regional deal (not a West Bank one strictly) policed by many countries and/or agencies, including two states in Israel/Palestine and the shut-down of the West Bank colonisation. (You didn't ask what I expect, only what I hope)
2 That Obama's caution instinct will outrun his transformative instinct
3 Use your vast mobilisation network, the millions who worked for you in the campaign, to lean on waffling Democrats and would-be centrist Republicans (those that remain).
Sergio Aguayo, Colegio de Mexico
1 That one of the sources of Barack Obama's appeal becomes a norm: that a man of his background has been able to symbolise the spirit of rationalism, which since the French revolution is the main legitimator of public life. He is so well regarded in Mexico in part because he reminds people of Benito Juárez, the (Zapotec) Indian president who resisted the French invasion of Mexico in the 19th century
2 What is at stake is the impact that individuals can have in history. Will Obama tame the powers that be, or will he be defeated like so many others? That is the question that is haunting the world
3 Never forget the slums of Chicago.
Carne Ross, Independent Diplomat
1  That the United States pays more heed to local realities, and less to abstractions whether neo-conservative or liberal
2 That neocon blinkers will be replaced by liberal ones
3 Do the right thing in Western Sahara, forgotten till today and where only the US can make a difference: by at last pressuring Morocco to allow self-determination and free the Saharawi people.
 
Bissane El-Cheikh, journalist, Lebanon
1 I hope that President Obama would implement in acts and deeds his promise of change. I hope that he and his administration would show enough wisdom to admit that this dream/promise means, in my part of the world, investing more in peace rather than war; and that it can only be achieved through a fair and viable solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
2 I fear the new young and dynamic president might drift apart from his dream, and become another "Washingtonian" carried away by the rules of the establishment
3 My advice for you, Mr President, is: do not make Israel your exclusive friend in the region. You can win hearts and minds by showing more pragmatism, fairness and equality in your foreign policy. You can be Israel's ally, but don't be its advocate. The rest of us have dreams too...

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The United States and Iran: a new course

openDemocracy
The relationship between Washington and Tehran is one of the most difficult and dangerous in world politics. But better understanding offers an opportunity for progress, suggests a group of twenty-one leading scholars, experts and diplomats - both American and Iranian - with years of experience studying and dealing with Iran. They propose a five-step strategy for a new US policy towards Iran, and expose eight misconceptions that are an obstacle to improved relations between the two states. 
24 - 11 - 2008


The joint experts' statement on Iran
Despite recent glimmers of diplomacy, the United States and Iran remain locked in a cycle of threats and defiance that destabilises the middle east and weakens US national security.
Today, Iran and the United States are unable to coordinate campaigns against the Taliban and al-Qaida, their common enemies. Iran is either withholding help or acting to thwart US interests in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Gaza. Within Iran, a looming sense of external threat has empowered hardliners and given them both motive and pretext to curb civil liberties and further restrict democracy. On the nuclear front, Iran continues to enrich uranium in spite of binding UN resolutions, backed by economic sanctions, calling for it to suspend enrichment.This statement was published on 18 November 2008 under the auspices of the American Foreign Policy Project, in association with the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN), 3D Security Initiative, and Just Foreign Policy, at a meeting hosted by the National Iranian American Council (NIAC)

The statement, including full details of the signatories, plus acknowledgments and a disclaimer, is here
US efforts to manage Iran through isolation, threats and sanctions have been tried intermittently for more than two decades. In that time they have not solved any major problem in US-Iran relations, and have made most of them worse. Faced with the manifest failure of past efforts to isolate or economically coerce Iran, some now advocate escalation of sanctions or even military attack. But dispassionate analysis shows that an attack would almost certainly backfire, wasting lives, fomenting extremism and damaging the long-term security interests of both the US and Israel. And long experience has shown that prospects for successfully coercing Iran through achievable economic sanctions are remote at best.
Fortunately, we are not forced to choose between a coercive strategy that has clearly failed and a military option that has very little chance of success. There is another way, one far more likely to succeed: open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive negotiations at the senior diplomatic level where personal contacts can be developed, intentions tested, and possibilities explored on both sides. Adopt policies to facilitate unofficial contacts between scholars, professionals, religious leaders, lawmakers and ordinary citizens. Paradoxical as it may seem amid all the heated media rhetoric, sustained engagement is far more likely to strengthen United States national security at this stage than either escalation to war or continued efforts to threaten, intimidate or coerce Iran.
Here are five key steps the United States should take to implement an effective diplomatic strategy with Iran:
1. Replace calls for regime change with a long-term strategy
Threats are not cowing Iran and the current regime in Tehran is not in imminent peril. But few leaders will negotiate in good faith with a government they think is trying to subvert them, and that perception may well be the single greatest barrier under US control to meaningful dialogue with Iran. The United States needs to stop the provocations and take a long-term view with this regime, as it did with the Soviet Union and China. We might begin by facilitating broad-ranging people-to-people contacts, opening a US interest section in Tehran, and promoting cultural exchanges.
2. Support human rights through effective, international means
While the United States is rightly concerned with Iran's worsening record of human-rights violations, the best way to address that concern is through supporting recognized international efforts. Iranian human-rights and democracy advocates confirm that American political interference masquerading as "democracy promotion" is harming, not helping, the cause of democracy in Iran.
3. Allow Iran a place at the table - alongside other key states - in shaping the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region
This was the recommendation of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group with regard to Iraq. It may be counter-intuitive in today's political climate - but it is sound policy. Iran has a long-term interest in the stability of its neighbours. Moreover, the United States and Iran support the same government in Iraq and face common enemies (the Taliban and al-Qaida) in Afghanistan. Iran has shown it can be a valuable ally when included as a partner, and a troublesome thorn when not. Offering Iran a place at the table cannot assure cooperation, but it will greatly increase the likelihood of cooperation by giving Iran something it highly values that it can lose by non-cooperation. The United States might start by appointing a special envoy with broad authority to deal comprehensively and constructively with Iran (as opposed to trading accusations) and explore its willingness to work with the United States on issues of common concern.openDemocracy's many articles on Iran's politics and foreign relations include:

Ardashir Tehrani, "Iran's presidential coup" (27 June 2005)

Trita Parsi, "The Iran-Israel cold war" (28 October 2005)
Dariush Zahedi & Omid Memarian, "Ahmadinejad, Iran and America" (15 January 2007)

Kamin Mohammadi, "Voices from Tehran" (31 January 2007)

Fred Halliday, "The matter with Iran" (1 March 2007)

Anoush Ehteshami, "Iran and the United States: back from the brink" (16 March 2007)

Nazenin Ansari, "Tehran's new political dynamic" (16 April 2007)

Nasrin Alavi, "Axis of Evil vs Great Satan: wrestling to normality" (2 May 2007)

Rasool Nafisi, "Iran's cultural prison" (17 May 2007)

Nasrin Alavi, "Iran's circle of power" (23 October 2007)

Omid Memarian, "Iran: prepared for the worst" (30 October 2007)

Jan De Pauw, "Iran, the United States and Europe: the nuclear complex" (5 December 2007)

Nasrin Alavi, "Iran's new order" (28 January 2008)
Paul Rogers, "Israel, US and Iran: the tipping-point" (13 March 2008)

Sanam Vakil, "Iran's political shadow war" (16 July 2008)

Paul Rogers, "Iran, Israel, and the risk of war" (24 July 2008)

Nasrin Alavi, "Iranians' interrupted freedom" (29 September 2008)
4. Address the nuclear issue within the context of a broader US-Iran opening
Nothing is gained by imposing peremptory preconditions on dialogue. The United States should take an active leadership role in ongoing multilateral talks to resolve the nuclear impasse in the context of wide-ranging dialogue with Iran. Negotiators should give the nuclear talks a reasonable deadline, and retain the threat of tougher sanctions if negotiations fail. They should also, however, offer the credible prospect of security assurances and specific, tangible benefits such as the easing of US sanctions in response to positive policy shifts in Iran. Active US involvement may not cure all, but it certainly will change the equation, particularly if it is part of a broader opening.
5. Re-energise the Arab-Israeli peace process and act as an honest broker in that process
Israel's security lies in making peace with its neighbours. Any US moves towards mediating the Arab-Israeli crisis in a balanced way would ease tensions in the region, and would be positively received as a step forward for peace. As a practical matter, however, experience has shown that any long-term solution to Israel's problems with the Palestinians and Lebanon probably will require dealing, directly or indirectly, with Hamas and Hizbollah. Iran supports these organisations, and thus has influence with them. If properly managed, a US rapprochement with Iran, even an opening of talks, could help in dealing with Arab-Israeli issues, benefiting Israel as well as its neighbours.
Conclusion
Long-standing diplomatic practice makes clear that talking directly to a foreign government in no way signals approval of the government, its policies or its actions. Indeed, there are numerous instances in our history when clear-eyed US diplomacy with regimes we deemed objectionable - e.g., Soviet Union, China, North Korea, Libya and Iran itself (cooperating in Afghanistan to topple the Taliban after 9/11) - produced positive results in difficult situations.
After many years of mutual hostility, no one should expect that engaging Iran will be easy. It may prove impossible. But past policies have not worked, and what has been largely missing from US policy for most of the past three decades is a sustained commitment to real diplomacy with Iran. The time has come to see what true diplomacy can accomplish.
Read the list of experts
Annex: eight myths about Iran
United States policies towards Iran have failed to achieve their objectives. A key reason for their failure is that they are rooted in fundamental misconceptions about Iran. This annex addresses eight key misconceptions that have driven US policy in the wrong direction.
Myth # 1. President Ahmadinejad calls the shots on nuclear and foreign policy
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has grabbed the world's attention with his inflammatory and sometimes offensive statements. But he does not call the shots on Iran's nuclear and foreign policy. The ultimate decision-maker is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the commander-in-chief of Iran's forces. Despite his frequently hostile rhetoric aimed at Israel and the west, Khamenei's track record reveals a cautious decision-maker who acts after consulting advisors holding a range of views, including views sharply critical of Ahmadinejad. That said, it is clear that US policies and rhetoric have bolstered hard-liners in Iran, just as Ahmadinejad's confrontational rhetoric has bolstered hardliners here.
Myth # 2. The political system of the Islamic Republic is frail and ripe for regime change
In fact, there is currently no significant support within Iran for extra-constitutional regime-change. Yes, there is popular dissatisfaction, but Iranians also recall the aftermath of their own revolution in 1979: lawlessness, mass executions, and the emigration of over half a million people, followed by a costly war. They have seen the outcome of US-sponsored regime-change in Afghanistan and in Iraq. They want no part of it. Regime-change may come to Iran, but it would be folly to bet on it happening soon.
Myth # 3. The Iranian leadership's religious beliefs render them undeterrable
The recent history of Iran makes crystal clear that national self-preservation and regional influence - not some quest for martyrdom in the service of Islam - is Iran's main foreign policy goal. For example:
· In the 1990s, Iran chose a closer relationship with Russia over support for rebellious Chechen Muslims
· Iran actively supported and helped to finance the US invasion of Afghanistan
· Iran has ceased its efforts to export the Islamic revolution to other Persian Gulf states, in favor of developing good relations with the governments of those states
· During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), Iran took the pragmatic step of developing secret ties and trading arms with Israel, even as Iran and Israel denounced each other in public.
Myth # 4. Iran's current leadership is implacably opposed to the United States
Iran will not accept preconditions for dialogue with the United States, any more than the United States would accept preconditions for talking to Iran. But Iran is clearly open to broad-ranging dialogue with the United States. In fact, it has made multiple peace overtures that the United States has rebuffed. Right after 9/11, Iran worked with the United States to get rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan, including paying for the Afghan troops serving under U.S. command. Iran helped establish the US-backed government and then contributed more than $750 million to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Iran expressed interest in a broader dialogue in 2002 and 2003. Instead, it was labeled part of an "axis of evil".
In 2005, reform-minded President Mohammad Khatami was replaced by the hardliner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But the same supreme leader who authorised earlier overtures is still in office today and he acknowledged, as recently as January 2008, that "the day that relations with America prove beneficial for the Iranian nation, I will be the first one to approve of that." All this does not prove that Iran will bargain in good faith with us. But it does disprove the claim that we know for sure they will not.
Myth # 5. Iran has declared its intention to attack Israel in order to "wipe Israel off the map."
This claim is based largely on a speech by President Ahmadinejad on 26 October 2005, quoting a remark by Ayatollah Khomeini made decades ago: "This regime that is occupying Qods [Jerusalem] must be wiped off/eliminated from the pages of history/our times." Both before and since, Ahmadinejad has made numerous other, offensive, insulting and threatening remarks about Israel and other nations - most notably his indefensible denial of the holocaust.
However, he has been criticised within Iran for these remarks. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself has "clarified" that "the Islamic Republic has never threatened and will never threaten any country" and specifically that Iran will not attack Israel unless Iran is attacked first. Ahmadinejad also has made clear, or been forced to clarify, that he was referring to regime change through demographics (giving the Palestinians a vote in a unitary state), not war.
What we know is that Ahmadinejad's recent statements do not appear to have materially altered Iran's long-standing policy - which, for decades, has been to deny the legitimacy of Israel; to arm and aid groups opposing Israel in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank; but also, to promise to accept any deal with Israel that the Palestinians accept.
Myth # 6. US-sponsored "democracy promotion" can help bring about true democracy in Iran
Instead of fostering democratic elements inside Iran, US-backed "democracy promotion" has provided an excuse to stifle them. That is why champions of human rights and democracy in Iran agree with the dissident who said: "The best thing the Americans can do for democracy in Iran is not to support it."
Myth # 7. Iran is clearly and firmly committed to developing nuclear weapons
If Iraq teaches anything, it is the need to be both rigorous and honest when confronted with ambiguous evidence about WMDs. Yet once again we find proponents of conflict over-stating their case, this time by claiming that Iran has declared an intention to acquire nuclear weapons. In fact, Iranian leaders have consistently denied any such intention and even said that such weapons are "against Islam".
The issue is not what Iran is saying, but what it is doing, and here the facts are murky. We know that Iran is openly enriching uranium and learning to do it more efficiently, but claims this is only for peaceful use. There are detailed but disputed allegations that Iran secretly worked on nuclear weapons design before Ahmadinejad came to power, concerns that such work continues, and certainty that Iran is not cooperating fully with efforts to resolve the allegations. We also know that Iran has said it will negotiate on its enrichment program - without preconditions - and submit to intrusive inspections as part of a final deal. Past negotiations between Iran and a group of three European countries plus China and Russia have not gone anywhere, but the United States, Iran's chief nemesis, has not been active in those talks.
The facts viewed as a whole give cause for deep concern, but they are not unambiguous and in fact support a variety of interpretations: that Iran views enrichment chiefly as a source of national pride (akin to our moon-landing); that Iran is advancing towards weapons capability but sees this as a bargaining-chip to use in broader negotiations with the United States; that Iran is intent on achieving the capability to build a weapon on short notice as a deterrent to feared US or Israeli attack; or that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons to support aggressive goals. The only effective way to illuminate - and constructively alter - Iran's intentions is through skilful and careful diplomacy. History shows that sanctions alone are unlikely to succeed, and a strategy limited to escalating threats or attacking Iran is likely to backfire - creating or hardening a resolve to acquire nuclear weapons while inciting a backlash against us throughout the region.
Myth # 8. Iran and the United States have no basis for dialogue
Those who favoured refusing Iran's offers of dialogue in 2002 and 2003 - when they thought the US position so strong there was no need to talk - now assert that our position is so weak we cannot afford to talk. Wrong in both cases. Iran is eager for an end to sanctions and isolation, and needs access to world-class technology to bring new supplies of oil and gas online. Both countries share an interest in stabilising Iraq and Afghanistan, which border Iran. Both support the Nouri al-Maliki government in Iraq, and face common enemies (the Taliban and al-Qaida) in Afghanistan. Both countries share the goal of combating narco-trafficking in the region. These opportunities exist, and the two governments have pursued them very occasionally in the past, but they have mostly been obscured in the belligerent rhetoric from both sides.
The experts (for full details, click here):
Ali Banuazizi (professor of political science and director, Islamic Civilisation and Societies Program, Boston College)
Mehrzad Boroujerdi (associate professor of political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs; founding director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program)
Juan RI Cole (professor of history at the University of Michigan)
James F Dobbins (former special envoy for Afghanistan and representative to the Afghan opposition in the wake of 11 September 2001)
Rola el-Husseini (assistant professor, the Bush school of government and public service, Texas A&M University)
Farideh Farhi (independent researcher and affiliate graduate faculty at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa)
Geoffrey E Forden (research associate in MIT's program on science, technology and society)
Hadi Ghaemi (coordinator, International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran)
Philip Giraldi (former CIA counter-terrorism specialist)
Farhad Kazemi (professor of politics and middle-eastern studies at New York University)
Stephen Kinzer (author and foreign correspondent)
William G Miller (senior fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars)
Emile A Nakhleh (retired senior intelligence service officer and director of the Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program in the directorate of intelligence at the CIA)
Augustus Richard Norton (professor of international relations and anthropology at Boston University)
Richard Parker (founder and executive director, American Foreign Policy Project; professor, University of Connecticut school of law)
Trita Parsi (author; president, National Iranian-American Council)
Thomas Pickering (vice-chairman, Hills & Company; former US ambassador to the UN, Russia, Israel and other nations)
Barnett R Rubin (director of studies and senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University; former special advisor to the UN special representative of the secretary-general for Afghanistan)
Gary G Sick (senior research scholar at Columbia University SIPA's Middle East Institute; adjunct professor of international affairs at SIPA)
John Tirman (executive director & principal research scientist, Center for International Studies, MIT)
James Walsh (research associate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

(Open Democracy)